Nasdaq Clears 22,000

The major indexes tapped another round of all-time and 52-week highs on Friday but were mixed on the close after key resistance levels were cleared earlier in the week. The charts show upside of another 2%-3% over the near-term and there are a number of events coming up that could help or hinder the current breakout.

The Nasdaq tested an all-time high of 22,182 while ending at 22,141 (+0.4%). Undefined resistance at 22,250 held. Support is at 22,000.

The S&P 500 settled at 6,584 (-0.05%) after testing a record peak of 6,600. Resistance at 6,600 was kissed and held. Support is at 6,550.

The Dow made a run to 46,077 before closing at 45,834 (-0.6%). New support at 45,500 held. Resistance is at 46,000.

Earnings and Economic News

Before the open: Hain Celestrial Group (HAIN)

After the close: Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY), High Tide (HITI)

Economic News

Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30am 

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts 

For the week, the Nasdaq was added 2% and the S&P jumped 1.6%. The Dow gained 1% while the Russell edged up 0.3%. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq has advanced 14.7% and the S&P has popped 11.9%. The Dow is higher by 7.7% and the Russell is up just over 7%, for 2025.

The major indexes continue to show parabolic numbers off the April 7th intraday lows with the Nasdaq now up 50% and the Russell at 38%. The S&P has rallied 36% from its early April low and the Dow has soared 25%. 

The Russell 2000 cleared and held key resistance at 2,400 on Thursday but failed to hold this level on Friday. Thursday’s fresh 2025 peak reached 2,422. Continued closes above 2,400 keeps the all-time high from last November at 2,466 in the mix. Our 2025 price target for the index from February 23rd, 2024 is at 2,500 and about 4% away.

Current support is at 2,375 with backup at 2,339 and the intraday low from August 25th and 26th. If 2,339 fails to hold on a close, there is risk to 2,275 and the 50-day moving average.

The Nasdaq tagged a lifetime peak of 22,182 on Friday with fresh resistance at 22,000 getting cleared and holding on Thursday. Continued closes above this level sets up a run to 23,000-23,250 on our revised price target from August 11th. Our previous targets for the index had been at 20,000 when the index was at 15,996 on February 23rd, 2024 and 22,000 this past January.

Support is at 21,750-21,500 followed by 21,250-21,000 and the 50-day moving average. A move below the latter two levels would be a slightly bearish signal with weakness towards 20,500.

The S&P 500 also set a new record high of 6,600. We said on August 11th that closes above 6,500 would be bullish for ongoing strength towards 6,700-6,750. 

Support is at 6,550-6,500. A close below the latter likely leads to a retest to 6,350 and the 50-day moving average.

The Dow hit an intraday record high of 46,137 on Thursday with undefined and lower resistance at 46,250-46,500 easily holding. A close above the latter would imply ongoing upside to 47,000-47,250. Our Price Target from February 23rd, 2024 for the blue-chips is at 50,000. 

Support at 45,750-45,500 with backup help is at 45,250-45,000 and the 50-day moving average. A close below the latter levels would signal a near-term top with additional weakness down to 44,000.

The Volatility Index (VIX) traded up 14.97 with shaky resistance at 15 holding. A pop above this level gets 16-16.50 and the 50-day moving average back in play. More important resistance for the bears is at 17.50 and the 200-day moving average. A close above 20 would be a very bearish sign for the bulls and the major indexes.

Support is at 14.25-14 with Friday’s low at 14.41. There is still a chance 13.50-12.75 comes into play on closes below the latter.

The relative strength index (RSI) levels for the major indexes are in the 60’s with the Nasdaq’s the highest at 68. With the Fed news on a rate cut due out this month, it is possible the market trades up another 2%-3% before a sell-the-news pullback occurs. This would push RSI levels near 70 and overbought conditions once again. 

There could also be some hesitation in the market ahead of the third-quarter earnings season that will start in October. In any event, the bears have several layers of support to crack before we can say a near-term top is in.