NextOptions.com Market Outlook and Alerts Update for 3/23/2026

Market Correcting as Bears Stay Aggressive

The first correction waves of the year were hit on Friday as fresh 2026 lows and clear downtrend channels have been emerging for a few weeks.  The recent price action is mirroring last year’s time frame and something we started warning about since last November. However, it remains to be seen if a full fledged bear market develops into early April, like last year, or if bargain hunters start to nibble in the upcoming weeks.

The Nasdaq settled at 21,647 (-2%) with the low hitting 21,522. Key support at 21,500 held. Lowered resistance is at 22,000.

The S&P 500 tagged a low of 6,473 while closing at 6,506 (-1.5%). Support at 6,500 held. Lowered resistance is at 6,600.

The Dow ended at 45,577 (-1%) with the low hitting 45,369. Support at 45,500 was breached but held. Resistance is at 46,000.

Earnings and Economic News 

Before the open: No major announcements

After the close: Public Policy Holding (PPHC)

Economic News

Construction Spending – 10:00am

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts 

For the week, the Nasdaq and the Dow fell -2.1% and the S&P 500 stumbled -1.9%. The Russell 500 sank -2%. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq has dropped -6.9% while the S&P is off 5%. The Dow is lower by -5.2% and Russell is now down 2%.

We have been harping on key support levels from November coming into focus over the past few weeks and the major three indexes all cracked these levels on Friday’s ongoing selling pressure. Intraday lows briefly caused the corrections (declines of -10%) on the Nasdaq and the Dow (-10%), along with the Russell (-11%). The S&P was down -8% on its intraday low of 6,473.

The Russell 2000 kissed 2,422 on Friday which represented an -11% selloff from the all-time top at 2,735 from January 22nd. We mentioned our next downside targets were at 2,475 and 2,375. The latter represents a 13% whipping. If 2,375 fails, the small-caps could test 2,275-2,225 for spankings of 17%-19% but still just shy of bear market territory. 

Lowered resistance is at 2,475-2,500. Closes back above 2,550 would help ease some of the selling pressure.

The Nasdaq fell firmly out of its descending triangle on Thursday and Friday with a death-cross also playing out like spades. We talked about 500-point drops coming into play mid-month and the first at 21,500 nearly tripped on Friday’s tumble to 21,522. Closes below 21,500 gets 21,000-20,500 in focus for declines of 13%-15% from the October 29th record peak at 24,019.

Lowered resistance is at 22,000-22,500 and a 200-day moving average. We said we would not trust the index for a possible bottom until there are multiple closes above 23,250 and that likely isn’t happening anytime soon.

The S&P 500 tested a low of 6,473 and we had highlighted downside risk to 6,500-6,350 coming into last week. This represented pullbacks of -7% and -9%, respectively, from the all-time peak at 7,002 on January 28th. We also kept talking about the 51-session and 200-point range (6,800-7,000) until we were blue in the face from mid-December and into March. We often mention when you see longer-term trading ranges, the bigger the breakout, or breakdown potential could be for a massive price move. 

If 6,350 fails to hold, there is a chance for ongoing weakness down to 6,200-6,000. This would represent a stumble and tumble of -11% and -14%, respectively.

Lowered resistance is at 6,600-6,700. Closes above 6,800 and the bottom of the previous trading range are needed to help reverse the current trend.

The Dow’s low at 45,369 on Friday represented a -10% selloff from the February 10th record top at 50,512. Our latter downside target coming into last week at 46,500-45,000 nearly tripped and represents an -11% haircut. There is risk to 43,250-42,000 for selloffs of -14% and -17%, respectively, on continued weakness.

Lowered resistance is at 46,000-46,500 and the 200-day moving average.

The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) closed above 26 on Friday. Fresh resistance at 30-35 is back in play with Friday’s peak at 29.38. Closes above 35 leads to panic selling with the VIX possibly reaching highs of 45-60. Support is at 24-22.

From February:

‘We mentioned on February 6th and 13th new downside targets for the major indexes were at: Nasdaq 22,000-21,500; S&P 6,600-6,500; and Russell 2,475-2,425. For the Dow, we highlighted 46,500 and 45,000 from the February 10th all-time high at 50,512.”From last week:

“We have listed additional backup and downside targets at Nasdaq 20,500 (-15%); S&P 6,200 (-11%); Russell 2,375 (-13%); and Dow 45,000 (-11%). It is more likely these double-digit downside targets come into play before a recovery of the 50-day moving averages for the major indexes.”

We talked about our outlook still being bearish if oil stays elevated above $100/ barrel. Last week’s peak on West Texas at $101.24. Closes above $100 and price action up to and above $120, is bearish for the market. Closes below $92.50 is bullish for the market. The current range between $92.50-$100 has been 10 sessions. We said earlier this month if oil can get back below $80, the market could start to stabilize. 

Futures are red ahead of Monday’s opening bell. Dow futures are down 191 points; Nasdaq futures are sinking 156 points; S&P futures are down 33 points; and Russell futures are dropping 20 points.

Despite the recent market turmoil, our portfolios have done super well (knock on wood) as this truly is a stock picker’s market. We have been mostly in call options and bullish positions all year and even for March for our directional alerts. Our credit spreads have been used for bearish setups mainly in Tech that have been taking advantage of the ongoing market weakness.

For the year, Velocity Options (directional alerts) is 13-2 with four (soon to be five) triple-digit winners. Real Wealth Income is 6-0 and focuses on covered calls. And our Red Zone newsletter that features bull put and bear call credit spreads is 7-1. Overall, we are 26-3 for the year for a 90% win rate.