NextOptions.com Market Outlook for 4/20/2026

The Nasdaq took out its previous lifetime high at 24,019 on Wednesday after closing higher for the 13th-straight session. We said coming into last week a death-cross was avoided the previous week and closes above 23,000 would suggest a near-term bottom with the possibility of new highs. That happened very quickly. There is potential bullishness up to 24,750-25,250 by the summertime, or at some point in 2026.

Fresh support is at 24,000-23,500. Closes back below 23,000 gets 22,500 and the 50-day/ 200-day moving averages back in the picture.

The S&P 500 hit a record high of 7,147 on Friday. Our January 9th target at 7,150 was approached and held by a field goal. Closes above this level would be bullish for further gains up to 7,350-7,500 over the next 6-9 months.

Support is at 7,100-7,000. A drop below the latter gets retest potential down to 6,800 and the 50-day moving average in play.

The Dow hit 49,717 on Friday’s intraday high with lower resistance at 50,000-50,500 easily holding. Closes above the latter and the February 10th all-time top at 50,512 would be an ongoing bullish signal for strength to 52,000-53,000.

New support is at 49,000-48,500. Closes below the 48,000 and the 50-day moving average would suggest a near-term peak.

The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) closed below 17.50 and the 50-day moving average for the third-straight session after taking out these levels on Wednesday. We talked about the previous week’s closes below 20 in back-to-back sessions and the breakdown out of the symmetrical triangle. Continued closes below 17.50 might get weakness down to 15-13.50 on the board.

Key resistance moving forward is at 18-20. There is wiggle room up to 22-22.50 on closes above the latter.

We noted on our April 6th charts, the Easter ceasefire demand would be crucial for how oil, and the market, would trade over the near-term and if a v-shape recovery would be sustainable. Remember, we called for this price pattern to follow last year’s price action back in November and it played out beautifully and nearly identical.

Once the downtrend channels for the major indexes were cleared on the April 8th breakout, we talked about how a near-term bottom could be forming with the gravitation towards higher highs likely.

Now, the first thing we pointed out in this week’s charts are the relative strength index (RSI) levels. The Nasdaq and the S&P have RSI readings of 75 and 73, respectively. The Russell’s RSI is at 72 while the Dow’s is just below 69. Readings above 70 are considered overbought but can often get extended towards 80, and even 90, in some cases.\

Weakness to start the week would help settle some of the FOMO (fear of missing out) fever but overbought levels can stay in play for weeks, and sometimes months. The ongoing geopolitical events have been extremely frustrating for many traders as they are getting trapped by reacting to the headlines instead of trusting the charts.

We have been mentioning that we have been fortunate enough to avoid the market volatility, and that we were actually in bullish options on stocks that have trended higher over the past few months. We have been saying this is truly a stock picker’s market and one that requires massive amounts of patience and homework. Nothing has changed with that statement.

For the year, the Track Record is at 18-3 (86% win rate) for our Velocity Options directional Alerts with FIVE triple-digit winners: IRDM calls 120%; KEY calls 107%; VIAV calls 271% and 319%; and BCRX calls 100%. Our covered call Alert (Real Wealth) portfolio is now 7-0 and our Credit Spread newsletter (Red Zone Trades) is now 10-1 (91%). Overall, the Track Records are at 35-4 (90% win rate).

We could have another round of New Alerts across all newsletters this week so stay locked-and-loaded. Don’t forget to signup for Text Alerts if you haven’t done so already.