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Bulls Remain in Control Ahead of 2Q Earnings Season
Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts
Major Market Levels
Nasdaq
Support To Hold: 25,250
Price To Clear: 26,250
All-Time High Level: 26,750 (27,190 on 6/1)
Bearish Breakdown Level: 24,500
The Nasdaq was up 2.1% for the week and is now up 11% for the year. Key resistance at 26,250 was cleared twice and has held the past three sessions. Closes above this level would bring 26,750 and another possible run toward all-time highs back into play. The index cleared its 50-day and 20-day moving averages on Tuesday but gave them both back on Friday.
Fresh support is at 25,750-25,500. Holding 25,250 keeps the current trading range from June 5th up to 26,750 intact with this time period now at 19 sessions. Multiple closes below 25,250 would increase the risk of a decline toward 24,500, which would represent exactly a 10% pullback from the all-time high. The June 9th low at 24,980 and the June 26th bottom at 25,014 represented -8% and -7% pullbacks, respectively.
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S&P 500
Support To Hold: 7,400
Price To Clear: 7,500
All-Time High Level: 7,600 (7,620 on 6/2)
Bearish Breakdown Level: 7,225
The S&P was higher by 1.8% for the week and has jumped 9% YTD. Key resistance at 7,500 was cleared but has held for three consecutive sessions. Closes above this level gets 7,600-7,650 and fresh record highs in focus.
The index is now trading within a narrow 100-point range between 7,400 and 7,500. A close below 7,400 and the 50-day and 20-day moving averages would get 7,225 back in the mix. A breakdown below 7,225 and the June 9th low at 7,237 could signal that a near-term peak has formed with risk down to 7,150-7,100. The latter would represent an -8% shellacking with 6,800 equaling an -11% selloff.
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Russell 2000
Support To Hold: 2,925
Price To Clear: 3,000
All-Time High Level: 3,050 (3,046 on 7/1)
Bearish Breakdown Level: 2,800
The Russell was down 0.5% for the week but is still up over 20% for 2026.
The index hit another fresh all-time high at 3,046 on Wednesday with our June 12th upside targets at 3,150-3,200 remaining in play. The bulls were unable to hold 3,000 into Thursday’s close but held the 20-day MA currently at 2,962.
Holding 2,925 keeps the broader uptrend intact for the index. However, a clean break below this level and the 50-day moving average around 2,875 would likely get early June support at 2,800 back on the dance floor. We stated last week that the 2,925 level needed to hold into earnings season and late July to keep the overall market pushing higher highs.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average
Support To Hold: 52,000
Price To Clear: 53,000
All-Time High Level: 52,909 (on 7/2)
Bearish Breakdown Level: 50,000
The Dow rose nearly 2% for the week and is up double-digits, or 10%, for the year. The Dow broke out to higher highs and remains within its adjusted uptrend channel Friday’s peak at 52,909. Our April 17th near-term targets at 52,000–53,000 were recently raised to 55,000.
A pullback below 52,000 and out of the current uptrend channel would bring additional support levels into play in roughly 500-point increments. A sustained move below 50,000 would signal that a near-term top may have formed.
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S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)
Initial Warning Level (Slightly Bearish): Multiple closes above 20
Bearish Market Signal: Multiple closes above 22-24
Lower Volatility Targets (Ongoing Bullishness): 15 (maybe 13.50-12.75)
The VIX continues to support a relatively bullish market environment with key support at 17.50 getting recovered by the Bulls on Tuesday. A clearer downtown channel has formed following the 6/26 stretch to 20.72 and one-day close above 20. The 50-day moving average is now showing signs of rolling over and also continues to support a bullish market thesis. Closes above 22-24 on the VIX would be a bearish development for the market.
The VIX could push 15 into the back end of July and during earnings season on lower lows. This would also lead to a possible further fade towards 13.50 with last Christmas Eve’s lower at 13.38 in the mix.
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Earnings and Economic News
Before the open: None
After the close: None
Economic News
None
Commentary
We have said over the past few weeks we wouldn’t be surprised to see a rangebound market with possible higher highs into earnings season, or the second week of July. So far, so good. We also have multiple layers of support on the major indexes before we know the market might be turning bearish along with a rising VIX and key resistance levels.
The July options now have less than two weeks before expiration and a time period we call the “all-or-nothing” zone. We only have one directional Alert with a July option expiration and we are still hoping we can snag a profit.
We mentioned we are now profiling August, September, and possibly October options for New Alerts and we have a packed WatchList.
Futures are showing a very bullish open for Monday. Dow futures are up 79 points while the Nasdaq futures are skyrocketing 412 as we head to press. The S&P futures are higher by 42 ticks and the Russell futures are up a touchdown.
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