NextOptions.com Market Outlook for 7/13/2026

2Q Earnings Season Starts Tuesday

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts 

Major Market Levels

Nasdaq

Support To Hold: 25,250 

Price To Clear: 26,250 

All-Time High Level: 26,750 (27,190 on 6/1)

Bearish Breakdown Level: 24,500

The Nasdaq was up 68 points for the week and is up 11% for the year. Key resistance at 26,250 was cleared and held on Friday. Continued closes above this level gets 26,750-27,000 in the picture with the all-time high from June 1st at 27,190. The index recovered its 50-day and 20-day moving averages on Thursday and held them on Friday. More importantly, the index broke out of a mini downtrend channel.

Fresh support is at 26,000-25,750. Holding 25,250 keeps the current trading range from June 5th up to 26,750 intact with this time period now at 24 sessions. Multiple closes below 25,250 would increase the risk of a decline toward 24,500, which would represent exactly a 10% pullback from the all-time high. The June 9th low at 24,980 and the June 26th bottom at 25,014 represented -8% and -7% pullbacks, respectively.

S&P 500

Support To Hold: 7,400

Price To Clear: 7,625 (blue-sky territory)

All-Time High Level: 7,600 (7,620 on 6/2) 

Bearish Breakdown Level: 7,225

The S&P rose 1.3% for the week and has gained 10% YTD. Key resistance at 7,500 was cleared Thursday and Friday. Ongoing closes above this level keeps 7,600-7,650 and fresh record highs in focus. Our May 15th targets are at 7,600-7,750.

Key support is at 7,500-7,475 and the 20-day moving average. Close below 7,425-7,400 and the 50-day and would be a slightly bearish signal with risk back down to 7,225. A breakdown below 7,225 and the June 9th low at 7,237 could signal that a near-term peak has formed with risk down to 7,150-7,100. The latter would represent an -8% shellacking with 6,800 equaling an -11% selloff.

Russell 2000

Support To Hold: 2,925

Price To Clear: 3,000

All-Time High Level: 3,050 (3,046 on 7/1) 

Bearish Breakdown Level: 2,875

The Russell was down 0.7% for the week and is up 20% for 2026. The index hit a fresh all-time high of 3,046 on July 1st. Our June 12th upside targets at 3,150-3,200 remain in play if 3,000 is recovered this week. The bulls were unable to hold 3,000 into Tuesday’s close but held the 20-day MA into Friday’s close that is currently at 2,970.

Holding 2,925 keeps the broader uptrend intact for the index although its was stretched on Wednesday’s drop out of it. We said a clean break below 2,925 and the 50-day moving average (now at 2,900) would likely get early June support at 2,800 back in focus. We have been saying since mid-June, the 2,925 level needs to hold into earnings season and late July to keep the overall market pushing higher highs.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support To Hold: 52,000 

Price To Clear: 53,000

All-Time High Level: 53,294 (on 7/7) 

Bearish Breakdown Level: 50,500-50,000

The Dow dipped 0.7% for the week but is still up nearly 10% for the year. The Dow broke out to higher highs midweek and remains within its adjusted uptrend channel with Tuesday’s record peak at 53,294. Our April 17th near-term targets at 52,000–53,000 were recently raised to 55,000. 

A pullback below 52,000 and out of the current uptrend channel would bring additional support levels into play in roughly 500-point intervals. A sustained move below 50,500-50,000 would signal that a near-term top may have formed.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) 

Initial Warning Level (Slightly Bearish): Multiple closes above 18.50-20 

Bearish Market Signal: Multiple closes above 22-24

Lower Volatility Targets (Ongoing Bullishness): 15 (maybe 13.50-12.75)

We said entering last week that the VIX continues to support a relatively bullish market environment. Specifically, we were looking for early June and key support at 15 to come into play and that is where we are at heading into earnings season. A clearer downtown channel was stretched to the upside on Wednesday, but held, with lower lows afterwards. We have been saying, multiple closes below 15 puts pressure on the bears down to 13.50 with last Christmas Eve’s lower at 13.38.

The 50-day moving average continues to show signs of rolling over and supports the bullish market thesis. Closes above 22-24 on the VIX would be a bearish development for the market.

Earnings and Economic News 

Before the open: LogProstyle (LGPS)

After the close: AeroGrow (AERO)

Economic News

None 

Commentary 

Our prediction for a rangebound market into earnings season played out in spades and we also saw higher highs coming into focus ahead of the 2Q earnings season. We continue to highlight downside layers of support on the major indexes because they can happen quickly.

We often say the bulls like to take the stairs to higher highs while the bears like to take the elevator to lower lows.

The monthly July options expire this Friday. We said we would be in exceptional shape for possible directional Alerts with August and September call (and possibly put) options now on deck.

Futures are showing a little slippage on Monday’s open. Dow futures are down 195 points while the Nasdaq futures are sinking 345 as we head to press. The S&P futures are lower by 36 points and the Russell futures are down 19.