NextOptions.com Market Outlook for 3/9/2026

Bears Takeover 2026 

Wall Street was lower for the week as the bears took control of the market for 2026. The Russell was hit the hardest but is still up for the year by 2% and remain a slight silver lining. However, that will likely change as the small-caps could be in the red for 2026 after Monday’s closing bell. 

The Nasdaq sank to a low of 22,328 on Friday while ending at 22,387 (-1.6%). Key support at 22,500 failed to hold. Resistance remains at 23,000.

The S&P 500 went out at 6,740 (-1.3%) after tapping a low of 6,711. Backup support at 6,700 held. Lowered resistance is at 6,800.

The Dow bottomed out at 47,009 before finishing at 47,501 (-0.9%). Key support at 47,000 held. Resistance is at 48,000.

Earnings and Economic News 

Before the open: FuelCell Energy (FCEL), 3D Systems (DDD), Korn/ Ferry (KFY)

After the close: Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Casey’s General Stores (CASY), Yext (YEXT), Vail Resorts (MTN)

Economic News

None

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts 

For the week, the Nasdaq was down 1.2% and the S&P 500 sank 2%. The Russell 500 gave back 4% and Dow dropped 3%. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq has fallen -3.7% and the S&P is off by -1.5%. The Dow is down -1.2% and the Russell is still up 2% for 2026.

The Nasdaq fell out of a 21-session 750-point trading range (22,500-23,250) from February 4th into March 5th. Crucial support at 22,500 failed to hold on Friday after holding eight times in February and twice to start last week. A deeper descending triangle has formed and is typically a bearish development on closes out of this technical setup. A close below 22,250 will likely signal weakness to 22,000-21,500. The latter levels represent 8% and 10% declines from the all-time high from October 29th at 24,019.

Resistance remains at 23,000-23,250 and the 50-day moving average. We highlighted the prior Wednesday’s false breakout that now represents the top of a fresh downtrend channel, in addition to the descending triangle, as well.

The Russell 2000 closed below the 2,600 level on Thursday and was an omen for further weakness in the overall market on Friday. We have been warning of risk down to 2,525-2,500 with the close on the former. The low at 2,518 represents an -8% tumble from the all-time top at 2,735 from January 22nd. The 2,475 level and 2,375 represents double-digit declines of -10% and -13%.

New resistance is at 2,550-2,575 after the close out of the 36-session trading range between 2,600-2,700.

The Dow has established a fresh downtrend channel following the two-day 1,237-point drop. The blue-chips fell thru several layers of support with Friday’s bottom at 47,009 representing a -7% spanking from the February 10th record top at 50,512. If price action tags 46,500-45,000 it would represent pullbacks of -8% and -11%.

New resistance is at 47,750-48,000. The current technical damage won’t be corrected until 49,000 and the 50-day moving average are recovered.

The S&P 500 fell out of a 51-session and 200-point range (6,800-7,000) with Friday’s close below the former. The low at 6,711 nearly matched Tuesday’s trip to 6,710. Prior and key support from mid-December and late January at 6,700 held. There is risk to 6,600-6,500 if breached.

Resistance is at 6,800 and the bottom of the previous trading range. Multiple closes above resistance at 6,925-6,950 would void the current setup and get all-time highs back in focus.

The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) came within spitting distance of tripping 30 with Friday’s peak at 29.93! We have been warning closes above and out of the previous symmetrical triangle could be disastrous for the bulls. The April 3rd, 2025 close was at 30.02 on a Thursday. The Friday close afterwards was at 45.31 with the peak at 45.61. This will likely be Monday’s first level tested. 

The following Monday, April 7th, 2025, the VIX reached an intraday peak of 60.13. Two days later, the VIX closed at 33.62 and was back below 35 by April 14th. This current price action could play out in similar fashion, or worse, in a faster or longer time period. Closes back below 24-22 are needed to calm the current chaos. 

From last Monday: 

“We have been talking about key support levels for over a month at: S&P 6,800; Dow 48,500; and Russell 2,600. The Nasdaq’s was adjusted from 23,000 to 22,500. If all of these levels fail to hold this month, watch for intense selling pressure.”

We mentioned on February 6th and 13th new downside targets for the major indexes at: Nasdaq 22,00-21,500; S&P 6,600-6,500; and Russell 2,475-2,425. For the Dow we highlighted 49,600 throughout January and said a top would occur if the index fell back below 48,000. This level was stretched on Tuesday and failed to hold Friday.  At 46,500 and 45,000, the index would be down -8% and -11% from the February 10th all-time high at 50,512.

Futures are looking nasty ahead of Monday’s opening bell. Dow futures are tanking 1,006 points; Nasdaq futures are plummeting 554 points; S&P futures are sinking 130 points; and Russell futures are stumbling 96 points.