NextOptions.com Market Outlook for 8/3/2026

S&P 500

Support To Hold: 7,400

Bullish Price To Clear: 7,500

All-Time High Level: 7,600 (7,620 on 6/2)

Bearish Breakdown Level: 7,225

The S&P rose 1% for the week with its YTD move also north of 9%. Key support at 7,400 had been holding for four sessions before Wednesday’s stumble to 7,313. This was only a 4% slide from the all-time high at 7,620 with critical support at 7,225 holding. The 7,100 level represents a -7% decline.

Resistance remains at 7,500 with Friday’s peak at 7,512. Closes above 7,550 7,600 would be a renewed bullish signal for fresh record highs towards 7,750 and our May 15th upper end price target.

Russell 2000

Support To Hold: 2,925-2,875

Bullish Price To Clear: 3,000

All-Time High Level: 3,050 (3,046 on 7/1)

Bearish Breakdown Level: 2,800

The Russell added two points for the week and has skyrocketed over 18% in 2026. Key support at 2,925 failed to hold on Wednesday’s dip to 2,903. Thursday’s close back above this level remains suspect until 2,975 clears. We said last week a clean break below 2,925 and the 50-day moving average (now at 2,943) would likely get early June support at 2,800 back in focus. This is still the case going into August.

Resistance remains at 3,000 and the top of the current range since the close below this level a month ago. The index tagged an all-time high of 3,046 on July 1st with our June 12th upside targets at 3,150-3,200.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support To Hold: 51,500

Bullish Price To Clear: 53,000-53,500

All-Time High Level: 53,294 (on 7/7)

Bearish Breakdown Level: 50,500-50,000

The Dow rose 0.9% for the week and has added 9% for the year. The close below 52,000 midweek was just the fourth since June 29th with a longer range between 51,500-53,000 playing out since June 15th. Multiple closes below 51,500 and the 50-day moving average (51,710) would imply weakness towards 50,000. The June 10th and 11th lows intraday lows kissed 49,913 and 49,977, respectively.

Closes above 53,000 and the July 7th all-time high at 53,294 would be a renewed bullish signal. We raised our target for the Dow to 55,000 on June 24th.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Initial Warning Level (Slightly Bearish): Multiple closes above 20-22

Bearish Market Signal: Multiple closes above 24-26

Lower Volatility Targets (Ongoing Bullishness): 15 (maybe 13.50-12.75)

The VIX closed above the 18.50 on Monday and then 20 on Wednesday. The bears had another “perfect” opportunity to extend the Nasdaq’s selloff into the other major indexes but failed to hold 20 in back-to-back sessions. There has now only been three closes above 20 and 22 since April 9th but the bulls are by no means “out of the woods”.

Once again for this week, watch 17.50 and the 50-day followed by 18.50-18.75 and the 200-day moving average. Obviously closes above 20-22 get heightened attention. Support is now at 15 with a more bullish development for the market being closes below this level and weakness towards 13.50-12.75.

Earnings and Economic News

Before the open: Marriott International (MAR), Avista (AVA), Compugen (CGEN), TG Therapeutics (TGTX), Tyson Foods (TSN)

After the close: Plantir Technologies (PLTR), Snap (SNAP), Clorox (CLX), Diamondback Energy (FANG), 3D Systems (DDD)

Economic News

PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45am

ISM Manufacturing Index – 10:00am

Construction Spending – 10:00am

Commentary

Last week was especially volatile and one that was easily predictable following a Fed update and major earnings from Tech. Microsoft (MSFT) shares surged 15% following blowout numbers while Meta Platforms sank 8% after missing earnings forecasts.

Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) shares got whacked for 7% on Friday to close just south of $309 despite topping earnings and setting a record high north of $344 on Wednesday. Amazon (AMZN) skyrocketed 15% after reporting a 215% earnings increase versus expectations while also delivering a slight revenue beat.

The bulls ability and resiliency to bend but not break continues to keep longer-term trading ranges in play. We often talk about the longer they are – the bigger the breakout, or breakdown, will be.

There are still a number of high profile companies announcing numbers over the next few weeks but much of Wall Street’s focus will now shift to the economy and geopolitical news.

Aside from Monday’s earnings we highlighted earlier, Caterpillar (CAT), Pfizer (PFE), and McDonalds (MCD) will in the spotlight Tuesday morning. After the close, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX).

Eli Lilly (LLY), Uber (UBER), SanDisk (SNDK) and Walt Disney (DIS) report quarterly results on Wednesday. ConocoPhillips (COP) reports Thursday morning while Airbnb (ABNB) and DraftKings (DKNG) are due out after the close.

Last week, the options market predicted earnings price moves of 10% for MSFT; 11% for META; 6% in AAPL; and 9% in AMZN. These price targets all played out beautifully in after-hours trading last Wednesday and Thursday.

For Monday, the options market is pricing in a 14%-15% move for PLTR. This would have the stock surging towards $140, or tumbling to $105. Tyson Foods  (TSN) fell 4% Friday ahead of Monday’s earnings announcement with the options pits predicting another possible 7% move.

We talked about respecting price action and that continues to be the case. The clues are there on when we could get more aggressive, bullish or bearish. We just need to maintain patience until price action clearly favors the bulls or bears.

As we head to press, Dow futures are are up 259 points while the Nasdaq futures are jumping 261. The S&P futures are gaining 43 points and the Russell futures are adding 17 ticks.

The August monthly options have 18 days from Monday’s open before expiration. September and October regular monthly options have 46 days and 74 days, respectively, before expiration.