NextOptions.com Market Outlook for 8/10/2026

All-Time Highs in Play on Double-Top Breakout

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts 

Major Market Levels

Nasdaq

Support To Hold: 26,250-26,000 

Bullish Price To Clear: 26,750 

All-Time High Level: 27,000 (27,190 on 6/1)

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 25,750-24,500

The Nasdaq was up 5.2% for the week with the gain for 2026 at 15%. Tuesday’s recovery of 26,250 and the 50-day moving average was a bullish signal but the rest of the week was sandwiched in a 500-point range. Prior resistance throughout June at 26,750 held with Wednesday’s peak at 26,739. Closes above this level gets 27,000-27,250 and the all-time high at 27,190 in the mix. Our May 29th notes predicted possible summertime upside to 28,000-28,250 with the current Fibonacci at 27,500.  

There are once again several layers of support before the bears are back in the game, starting with 26,250-26,000 and the 50-day moving average. Backup help is at 25,250 and then 24,500. The 200-day moving average has moved up to just above 24,000.

S&P 500

Support To Hold: 7,600

Bullish Price To Clear: 7,800

All-Time High Level: 7,800 (7,793 on 8/5) 

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 7,400-7,225

The S&P jumped 3.6% for the week with its YTD move now at 13%. Fresh resistance at 7,800 was challenged with Wednesday’s all-time high at 7,793 and Friday’s peak at 7,763. Closes above 7,800 would be an ongoing bullish signal for strength towards 7,850-8,000. 

Support is at 7,700 followed by 100-point intervals at 7,600 and 7,500 and the 50-day moving average. The prior Wednesday’s fade to 7,313 was only a 4% slide from the previous all-time high top at 7,620.

Russell 2000

Support To Hold: 2,925-2,875

Bullish Price To Clear: 3,050

All-Time High Level: 3,050 (3,048 on 8/5) 

Bearish Breakdown Level: 2,800

The Russell soared 4% for the week and has skyrocketed 22% in 2026. Prior resistance at 3,000-3,050 was cleared and held last Wednesday with the all-time top now at 3,048. This represents a 75% move off the April 2025 low of 1,732. Our June 12th upside targets remain at 3,150-3,200. 

Key support at 2,925 failed to hold on the prior Wednesday’s dip to 2,903 but held on the previous Friday’s double-bottom at 2,902. We have repeatedly said a clean break below 2,925 and the 50-day moving average (now at 2,934) would likely get early June support at 2,800 back in focus. This is still the case for August.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support To Hold: 53,250

Bullish Price To Clear: 55,000

All-Time High Level: 54,750 (54,749 all-time high on 8/5) 

Bearish Breakdown Level: 52,000

The Dow popped 3% for the week and has rallied 12% for the year. The close above 53,250 midweek was also a double-top breakout like the S&P, and gets our June 24th target at 55,000 in focus. Closes above this level and last Wednesday’s all-time high at 54,749 could lead to upside towards 56,750-57,000.

New support is at 53,250 followed by 52,000 and the 50-day moving average. Additional layers of support are at 51,000-50,000.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) 

Initial Warning Level (Slightly Bearish): Multiple closes above 17.50-18.50

Bearish Market Signal: Multiple closes above 22-24

Lower Volatility Targets (Ongoing Bullishness): 15 (maybe 13.50-12.75)

The VIX closed back below 17.50 and the 50-day moving average on July 30th and a level that was cleared but didn’t hold the following session and again last Wednesday. This will be first signal (multiple closes) of the bears possibly returning followed by closes or a move above 18.50 and the 200-day moving average. Once again, closes above 20-22 get heightened attention as it would suggest a near-teem market top. And remember, we’ve only had three, one-day closes above these levels since April 9th.

The close below 15 on Friday was the first since January 9th. New support is now at 13.50 with the December 24th low from last year at 13.38. We stated just last week a more bullish development for the market would be closes below 15 with weakness towards 13.50-12.75. There is a slim, and we mean a very slim possibility, the VIX trades down to 10, and possibly single-digits, on an ongoing rip-your-face off rally. The last time the VIX accomplished that feat was in 2017, and almost in 2007. 

Earnings and Economic News 

Before the open: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Dole (DOLE), Life360 (LIF), Veru (VERU)

After the close: Rocket Lab (RKLB), Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), Plug Power (PLUG), GoPro (GPRO), Dragonfly (DPRO), Rapid7 (RPD), Trump Media & Technology (DJT)

Economic News

None

Commentary 

Once again, the bulls rallied from the brink of disaster, while pushing all-time highs and a v-shape recovery off the previous week’s low. The Nasdaq had fallen 10% from its all-time high but recovered half of its losses on a percentage basis last week.  Meanwhile, the broader market, the blue-chips, and the small-caps tagged fresh all-time highs.

We mentioned last week the bulls resiliency was keeping longer-term trading ranges in play and that a pending breakout, or breakdown, was on the horizon. We are going to wait until next week to possibly draw new uptrend channels off the previous all-time peaks and prior support levels to confirm a longer-term and ongoing bullish trend.

If we were to draw the uptrend channels now, the major indexes, excluding the Nasdaq, would show the 50-day moving averages right at the bottom of the newly formed uptrend channels. The Nasdaq would be at the top of a new uptrend channel, and on the verge of a breakout.

The height of the 2Q earnings season is in the rearview mirror but there are a few companies earnings and economic news we are watching this week.

Aside from Monday’s earnings we highlighted earlier, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) on Tuesday morning and T1 Energy (TE) on Wednesday morning.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) reports numbers after Wednesday’s and Yeti (YETI) Thursday morning. Applied Materials (AMAT) highlights the week and comes after Thursday’s close. Unemployment numbers, CPI and retail sales could add some extra, or lessen, volatility in the market starting on Wednesday.

As we head to press, futures are mostly lower. Dow futures are down 81 points but the Nasdaq futures are up 31. The S&P futures are off two points and the Russell futures are slipping six ticks. 

The August monthly options have 11 days from Monday’s open before expiration. September and October regular monthly options have 39 days and 67 days, respectively, before expiration.