Small-Caps Showing Cracks

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts 

Major Market Levels

Nasdaq

Support To Hold: 26,000

Bullish Price To Clear: 26,750 

All-Time High Level: 27,000 (27,190 on 6/1)

Bearish Breakdown Level: 25,250

The Nasdaq was up 0.8% for the week with the gain for 2026 at 13.6%. Thursday’s recovery back above 26,250 was slightly bullish with more important resistance at 26,750 holding into the weekend. Friday’s peak hit 26,700 with closes above these levels and the all-time high at 27,190 possibly leading to our May 29th targets at 28,000-28,250. The fresh Fibonacci has possible upside to 28,175 with the August 24th low giving us the near-term bottom, or “3”, on the chart.

Support is at 26,250-26,000. Closes below the latter and the 50-day moving average gets 25,250 back on the map and where the July 23rd triple-bottom breakdown occurred. If the bears can get multiple closes below 25,250 again and the new uptrend line, there is retest risk down to 24,500-24,000.

S&P 500

Support To Hold: 7,600

Bullish Prices To Clear: 7,775 

All-Time High Level: 7,800 (7,816 on 8/13)

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 7,600-7,550 (New)

The S&P rose 0.5% for the week with its YTD rising to 12.7%. Resistance at 7,775 held by less than four points on Friday’s run to 7,771 but lower close. Closes above 7,800-7,850 would be a renewed bullish signal with upside towards 8,000-8,250. Our Price Target for the index from May 29th was at 7,775 and we have highlighted upside towards 8,000-8,150 if the bulls can clear the month long trading range. The current Fibonacci charts show an extension towards 8,100-8,250 off the March 30th and July 29th lows.

Support is at 7,600-7,550 and the 50-day moving average. Closes below these levels and out of bottom of the uptrend channel would be another possible bearish breakdown towards 7,500-7,400 with the July 29th low at 7,313.

Russell 2000

Support To Hold: 2,925

Bullish Prices To Clear: 3,000-3,025

All-Time High Level: 3,075 (3,069 on 8/14) 

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 2,875 (new, lowered)

The Russell stumbled 1.5% for the week but is still up 19.8% in 2026. However, the index was the only one not to post a weekly gain, and is now down 3% over the past two weeks. Shaky support at 3,000-2,975 and the 50-day moving average all failed to hold on the closing low at 2,972. A drop below 2,925 likely indicates a near-term top with additional downside pressure to 2,875-2,800.

We warned to watch a possible breakdown out of the uptrend channel and back below 3,000 coming into last week with Monday’s action confirming our prediction. The bottom of the new uptrend channel is now at the 3,025 level. We stated 3,050 also needed to be cleared last week to regain bullish momentum with last Thursday’s weekly peak at 3,019 and Monday’s and Friday’s highs at 3,017.

Another important takeaway from this month’s action is the Fibonacci chart is showing a near-term top for the Russell off the March 30th lows with the 61.8% level holding perfectly mid-Month. The August 14th low can be used for a short Fibonacci, although we would like more data, but shows 2,925 coming into play – and being a possible bottom.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support To Hold: 53,250

Bullish Price To Clear: 53,500 (lowered)

All-Time High Level: 54,750 (54,749 all-time high on 8/5) 

Bearish Breakdown Level: 52,000

The Dow was higher by 0.5% for the week with the gain at 11.4% for the year. The index reclaimed key resistance at 53,250 on Monday while holding it throughout the week. Closes below this level and out of the bottom of the uptrend channel has some stretch down to 53,000-52,750 and the 50-day moving average. A close below 52,000 would likely confirm a near-term peak for the index.

Resistance is at 53,750-54,000. Closes above the latter would be a fresh bullish signal for a possible push to the August 5th all-time high at 54,749 and our June 24th target at 55,000.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) 

Initial Warning Level (Slightly Bearish): Multiple closes above 17.50-18.50

Bearish Market Signal: Multiple closes above 20-22 

Lower Volatility Targets (Ongoing Bullishness): 13.50-12.75

The VIX traded up to 16.30 on Tuesday’s weekly peak with key resistance levels at 16.50-17.50 and the 50-day moving average holding.  Closes above 18.50 and the 200-day moving average likely gets 20-22 on the map and would suggest a possible near-term market peak.

Friday’s monthly low at 14.13 and second-straight session close below 15 keeps weakness towards 13.50-12.75 on the bullish radar for the market. More on the VIX below.

Earnings and Economic News 

Before the open: Science Applications (SAIC), BioLineRX (BLRX)

After the close: Pyxis Tankers (PXS)

Economic News

None for Monday (JOLTs on Tuesday and August Jobs Report on Friday)

Commentary 

The biggest news from last week was Nvidia (NVDA) as its revenue beat and strong outlook reignited the AI trade on Thursday. Shares jumped 8.7% on the news and helped lift other stocks: Salesforce (CRM) rallied over 22%, CrowdStrike (CRWD) was up over 20%, and Okta (OKTA) surged 29% on earnings, as well.

Friday’s slight market pullback came after Fed Chair Warsh emphasized getting inflation back towards 2%. His comments increased expectations that the Fed could raise rates again, pushing bond yields higher.

The takeaway we got is that the small-caps performance over the past few weeks tells us higher rates are still hurting rate-sensitive companies. The near-term battle will be AI momentum versus higher rates.

A wild card over the weekend was the deal the U.S. made with Venezuela in what President Trump called the “biggest oil deal in world history”. The agreement gives U.S. interests majority control over development tied to more than 65 million barrels of proven Venezuelan oil reserves.

Of course, the Middle East/ Hormuz developments remain far more important over the near-term than the longer-term Venezuela deal but this should help lower diesel prices. Interestingly, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) and  WTI Crude (OILUSD) are both showing symmetrical triangles on the charts which typically signals a major move is forthcoming.

The three stocks we are watching include: Halliburton (HAL), Baker Hughes (BKR), and Chevron (CVX).

As far as the other charts, watch the Russell’s and the Dow’s to confirm their uptrend channels hold. The Nasdaq and the S&P, on the other hand, are near key resistance levels and need to likely breakout this week if the VIX makes lower lows. If not, this would be a real warning signal for the market.

In other words, if the VIX gets below 13.50 and the S&P hasn’t cleared 7,775-8,000, or the Nasdaq isn’t above 26,750-27,000 – it is exactly the sort of divergence that can proceed a volatility event. We have mentioned this week’s economic news and the weekend oil developments so we will be watching to see how these developments unfold.

The September monthly options have 18 days from Monday’s open before expiration. October and November regular monthly options have 46 days and 81 days, respectively, before expiration. 

Futures as we head to press: Nasdaq (-170), Dow (-159), S&P (-31) and the Russell (-10 points) are in the red.

NextOptions.com Alerts Update for 8/31/2026

DIRECTIONAL ALERTS — TRACK RECORD

2026: 38–15 • 72% win rate • 8 triple-digit winners
2025: 55–20 • 73% • 17 triple-digit winners
2024: 77–17 • 82% • 38 triple-digit winners
2023: 34–11 • 76% • 8 triple-digit winners
 

Overall: 204–65 • 76% win rate • 70 triple-digit winners