Nasdaq Closes Below 200-Day MA

The bears pushed another fresh round of 2026 lows on Friday for the blue-chips and the S&P, while the Nasdaq and the small-caps stayed slightly above their Monday lows. Key support levels from November are in focus with the major indexes remaining in their downtrend channels off of the January and February all-time highs.

The Nasdaq closed at 22,105 (-0.9%) after trading down to 22,069. Key support at 22,000 held. Resistance is at 22,500.

The S&P 500 tagged a low of 6,623 while ending at 6,632 (-0.6%). Support at 6,600 held. Lowered resistance is at 6,700.

The Dow finished at 46,558 (-0.3%) with the low hitting 46,494. Support at 46,500 was tripped but held. Resistance is at 47,000.

Earnings and Economic News 

Before the open: Dollar Tree (DLTR), VNET Group (VNET)

After the close: Adecoagro (AGRO), Semtech (SMTC)

Economic News

New York Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30am 

Industrial Production – 9:15am

Capacity Utilization – 9:15am

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts 

For the week, the Nasdaq fell -1.2% and the S&P 500 stumbled -1.6%. The Russell 500 and the Dow sank -2%. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq has dropped -4.9% while the S&P and Dow are both down -3.1%. The Russell is now in negative territory by 2 points following last week’s action.

We mentioned going into last week the small-caps were the only index still showing a gain for 2026. However, we warned selling pressure could push the Russell 2000 into negative territory as the chart pointed to continued weakness. The index kissed 2,463 last Monday which represented a -10% selloff from the all-time top at 2,735 from January 22nd. Our next downside target from 2,475 (that held into the close) is at 2,375 and would represent a loss of -13% for the index.
 

Lowered resistance is at 2,500-2,525. Closes back above 2,550 would help ease some of the selling pressure.

The Nasdaq tagged a Monday low of 22,061 that held by a snowman on Friday and represented an -8% pullback from the all-time high at 24,019. Friday’s close below the 200-day moving average was the first close below this level since May 9th of last year. Continued closes below 22,000 and key support will likely signal further weakness to 21,500-21,000. These levels represent -10% and -13% selloffs from the record peak.

Resistance is at 22,500-23,000 and a 50-day moving average that is rolling over. We would not trust the index for a possible bottom until there are multiple closes above 23,250.

We talked about the Dow’s freshly minted downtrend channel to close out February with Friday’s low at 46,494 representing an -8% selloff from the February 10th record top at 50,512. Our first downside target at 46,500-45,000 tripped with the latter representing an -11% haircut.

Lowered resistance is at 47,000-47,500. The current technical damage won’t be corrected until 49,000 and the 50-day moving average are recovered.

The S&P 500 tested a low of 6,623 after falling out of a 51-session and 200-point range (6,800-7,000) on March 6th. We often mention when you see longer-term trading ranges, the breakout, or breakdown could be massive. Friday’s low at 6,623 still only represented a 5% decline from the all-time peak at 7,002 on January 28th. However, the action could get much worse if 6,600 and the 200-day moving average fail to hold this week. If these levels crack, there is downside risk to 6,500-6,350 and further declines of -7% and -9%, respectively.

Lowered resistance is at 6,700-6,750. Closes above 6,800 and the bottom of the previous trading range are needed to help reverse the current trend.

The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) actually closed lower on Friday’s market weakness which is not common, but happens, as it works in reverse of the market. The low hit 24.67 with crucial support at 24 holding. The market won’t show some sort of calmness until the VIX falls back below 22-20. Friday’s low tagged 24.67.

Fresh resistance remains 30-35 with Friday’s peak at 28.47. Closes above 35 leads to panic selling with the VIX possibly reaching highs of 45-60.

From February:

‘We mentioned on February 6th and 13th new downside targets for the major indexes were at: Nasdaq 22,000-21,500; S&P 6,600-6,500; and Russell 2,475-2,425. For the Dow, we highlighted 46,500 and 45,000 from the February 10th all-time high at 50,512.”

This week, we have listed additional backup and downside targets at Nasdaq 20,500 (-15%); S&P 6,200 (-10%); Russell 2,375 (-13%); and Dow 45,000 (-11%). It is more likely these double-digit downside targets come into play before a recovery of the 50-day moving averages for the major indexes.

These targets are based on a continuing strike, or excursion, on Iran by the U.S. and other countries for another three weeks, or longer. This outlook is also likely if oil stays elevated above $100/ barrel. If the action ends sooner, and oil can get back below $80, the market could start to stabilize. 

Futures are green ahead of Monday’s opening bell. Dow futures are up 100 points; Nasdaq futures are adding 60 points; S&P futures are up 10 points; and Russell futures are gaining 15 points.