S&P Avoids Correction Territory

S&P Avoids Correction Territory 

The stock market showed weakness for the fifth-straight week while cracking another round of key support levels. Higher oil prices were the culprit following incidents in the Strait of Hormuz as Brent oil jumped above triple-digits while West Texas closed just below the $100 level. It was the highest close in nearly four years for both benchmarks.

The Nasdaq ended at 20,948 (-2.2%) with the low hitting 20,909. Key support at 21,000 failed to hold. Lowered resistance is at 21,500.

The S&P 500 kissed a low of 6,356 while closing at 6,368 (-1.7%). Support at 6,350 held. Lowered resistance is at 6,500.

The Dow settled at 45,166 (-1.7%) with the low at 45,063. Support at 45,000 held. Resistance is at 45,750.

Earnings and Economic News 

Before the open: PAVmed (PAVM), Rezolve (RZLV)

After the close: Progressive Software (PRGS), HireQuest (HQI)

Economic News

10:30am – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts 

For the week, the Nasdaq tanked 3.2% and the S&P 500 sank -2.1%. The Dow dropped 0.9% while the Russell 2000 bucked the trend after adding 11 points, or 0.4%. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq has dropped -9.9% while the S&P is down 7%. The Dow has given back -6% and the Russell is off less than 2%.

For the second-straight week, the S&P 500 avoided a 10% correction despite the lower lows. And we just mentioned the small-caps actually having a positive week. That’s the good news. The bad news is volatility remains highly elevated AND closed above a key resistance level.

Friday’s intraday lows briefly caused brief corrections of -13% on the Nasdaq and -11% on the Dow. The S&P was down -9% on its intraday low and the Russell held its previous week’s low and decline of -11%. So, let’s go over the numbers.

The Russell 2000 kissed 2,443 on Friday and held the March 20th low at 2,422 throughout the week. More importantly, index was higher for the week. The low represented an -11% selloff from the all-time top at 2,735 from January 22nd. 

If 2,425 fails this week, there is ongoing risk down to 2,375 which would be a 13% spanking from the all-time top. If 2,375 fails, the small-caps could test 2,275-2,225 for losses of -17% and -19%. Bear market territory is at 2,201.

Resistance remains at 2,475-2,500 with closes back above 2,550 easing some of the selling pressure.

The Nasdaq tested 20,909 on Friday which represented a 13% selloff from the October 29th record peak at 24,019. We talked about 500-point drops coming into play mid-month and we got TWO of them last week. Closes below 21,000 gets 20,500-20,000 in the mix for declines of 15%-17%, respectively. Bear market territory is at 19,335.

Lowered resistance is at 21,500-22,000 followed by 22,500 and the 200-day moving average. The death-cross we have been highlighting since mid-February is getting closer to becoming official.

The S&P 500 tested a low of 6,356 which was a -9% selloff from the all-time peak at 7,002 on January 28th. We have been talking about downside risk to 6,500-6,350 for a few weeks. Closes below the latter keeps risk to 6,200-6,000 for beatdowns of -11% and -14%, respectively. A 20% decline to 5,636 would officially mark bear market territory.

Lowered resistance is at 6,400-6,500.

The Dow’s low at 45,063 on Friday represented a -11% correction from the February 10th record top at 50,512. Our latter downside target mid-month at 46,500-45,000 held There is risk to 43,250-42,000 for selloffs of -14% and -17%, respectively, if 45,000 fails to hold this week.

Lowered and key resistance is at 45,750 followed by 46,500 and the 200-day moving average.

The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) closed above 30 on Friday. Lower resistance at 30-35 was cleated and held. This also represented the first close above 30 since April 3rd, 2025. We mentioned last week if 35 is cleared, panic selling in the market could push the VIX towards 45-60. 

In a prefect bullish world, this where a possible double-top would occur and where the market officially bottoms. Support is at 26 followed by 24-22.

From February:

‘We mentioned on February 6th and 13th new downside targets for the major indexes were at: Nasdaq 22,000-21,500; S&P 6,600-6,500; and Russell 2,475-2,425. For the Dow, we highlighted 46,500 and 45,000 from the February 10th all-time high at 50,512.”

From March 13th:

“We have listed additional backup and downside targets at Nasdaq 20,500 (-15%); S&P 6,200 (-11%); Russell 2,375 (-13%); and Dow 45,000 (-11%). It is more likely these double-digit downside targets come into play before a recovery of the 50-day moving averages for the major indexes.”

Our market prediction of a selloff from the same time period as last year remains firmly in play and now it is all about finding a bottom. With the lows teens in play as far as losses for the major indexes, it is now a 50/50 chance a bear market comes into play. This, of course, would mean a 20% haircut across the board.

If bear market territory were to “officially” happen, the Russell would be at 2,201; the Dow at 40,664; the S&P would be at 5,636; and the Nasdaq would be trading at 19,335.

Last year’s market bottom came April 7th for the Dow (36,611), S&P (4,835), and the Nasdaq (14,784). For the Russell, April 9th was its bottom (1,732). These declines were -19% for the Dow; -21% for the S&P; -30% for the Russell; and -27% for the Nasdaq.

Despite the recent market turmoil, our portfolio has continues to do well but we still need to be cautious as this truly remains a stock picker’s market. We have been mostly in call options and bullish positions all year and even for March for our directional alerts as put options have become super expensive.

Meanwhile, call options are getting much cheaper but strike price adjustments are going to be needed along with some fresh math to get the best setups. This will be after confirming a market bottom.

For the year, the Track Record is at 14-2 as we locked-in our fifth triple-digit winner last week for our Velocity Alerts. The covered call portfolio (Real Wealth) is 6-0 and our credit spread newsletter (Red Zone) is at 8-1. Overall we are 28-3 for a 90% win rate across the board.

Futures are showing a little bit of green ahead of Monday’s opening bell. Dow futures are up 6 points; Nasdaq futures are higher by 22 points; S&P futures are rising 7 points; and Russell futures are adding 8 points.

NextOptions.com Alerts Update for 3/30/2026

Directional Alerts (Velocity Options) Track Record for 2026: 14-2 (88%, 5 triple-digit winners); 2025: 55-20 (73%, 17 triple-digit winners); 2024: 77-17 (82%, 38 triple-digit winners); 2023: 34-11 (76%, 8 triple-digit winners). Overall: 180-50 (78% win rate) 68 triple-digit winners