NextOptions.com Market Outlook for 4/13/2026

V-Shape Recovery in Jeopardy

The stock market posted its first back-to-back winning weeks for the year, surprisingly, as the bulls started to make a real attempt at a v-shape recovery. A hot CPI inflation report weighed on Friday’s session but Tech managed to hold court to extend its winning streak to 8-straight.

The Nasdaq traded to a high of 23,011 before settling at 22,902 (0.4%). Key resistance at 23,000 was topped but held. Support is at 22,500.

The S&P 500 ended at 6,816 (-0.1%) after trading down to 6,808. Fresh support at 6,800 held. Resistance is at 6,850.

The Dow pulled back to 47,856 while closing at 47,916 (-0.6%). Support at 48,000 failed to hold. Resistance is at 48,500.

Earnings and Economic News 

Before the open: None

After the close: AstroNova (ALOT), FB Financial (FBK)

Economic News

Existing Home Sales – 10:00am

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts 

For the week, the Nasdaq zoomed 4.7% and the S&P 500 was up 3.6%. The Dow added 3% while the Russell 2000 jumped nearly 4%. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq is lower by -1.4% and the S&P is off 30 points, or 0.4%. The Dow needs to add 147 points to erase its current 0.2% loss while the Russell has surged 6% for 2026.

The Russell 2000 tapped a high to 2,646 on Friday with Wednesday’s breakout clearing a downtrend channel off the January 22nd all-time high of 2,735 and the intraday high of 2,706 on February 11th. Closes above 2,675 likely gets the aforementioned peaks in play. 

New layers of support are at 2,600-2,575 and a flatlining 50-day moving average. Closes below 2,550 would indicate another near-term top.

The Nasdaq came close to holding key resistance at 23,000 on Friday. We said coming into last week, closes above this level would suggest a near-term bottom. It would also gets fresh lifetime highs back in play north of 24,000 with the October 29th record peak at 24,019. 

Fresh support is at 22,500 and 50-day/ 200-day moving averages. The death-cross we have been highlighting since mid-February is still getting closer to becoming official but is also still trying to level out.

The S&P 500 tagged a high of 6,845 on Friday with lower resistance at 6,850-6,900 holding by a nickel. Closes above 6,925 would be slightly bullish for a possible push to fresh all-time highs north of 7,000.

Support is at 6,800-6,750. A drop below 6,750 and the 50-day moving average would likely lead to weakness down to 6,700-6,650 and 200-day moving average. This would also suggest a possible near-term top and overhyped breakout. 

The Dow hit 48,323 on Thursday’s peak while holding key resistance at 48,000. Mid-March and key resistance at 48,000 and the 50-day moving average were cleared but levels that failed to hold into the weekend. Closes above 49,000 would be an ongoing bullish sign for fresh all-time highs north of 50,000.

Fresh support is at 47,500-47,000. Closes below the latter and the 200-day moving average would be slightly bearish. 

The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) closed below 20 in back-to-back sessions with Friday’s low at 18.83. We mentioned another symmetrical triangle was forming and last Wednesday’s plunge below the 50-day moving average was very bullish for the market. Continued closes below 20 could lead to weakness down to 17.50-15 into May.

Key resistance moving forward is at 24. There is wiggle room up to 26 on the VIX with a close above this level being bearish for the market with additional upside risk towards 30-35 again.

Wednesday’s 3% market rally caught a ton of traders off-guard but we had been highlighting some of the bullish action in the charts. Friday’s gravitation to higher highs was also an ongoing bullish signal as it suggests money is moving back into the market. Hence the back-to-back weekly gains in the major indexes, again, for the first time this year.

We noted in our charts ahead of last Monday’s open that the Easter ceasefire demand would be crucial for how oil, and the market, traded over the near-term. We also said this week’s upcoming 1Q earnings season could aid a possible v-shape recovery, just like last year, or help extend the downtrend channels and lower lows for the major indexes. 

So far, the action has played out picture perfect and something we started highlighting LAST November. However, this weekend news of a deal not being reached has pushed futures into the red by over 1% as we head to press. Oil is also seeing a renewed uptick and the first-quarter earnings season gets underway this week.

We have been fortunate enough to avoid the market volatility and we were actually in bullish options on stocks that have trended higher over the last few months. We have been saying for months this is truly a stock picker’s market and one that requires massive amounts of homework.

For the year, the Track Record is at 16-3 for our Velocity Options directional Alerts with FIVE triple-digit winners: IRDM calls 120%; KEY calls 107%; VIAV calls 271% and 319%; and BCRX calls 100%. Our covered call Alert (Real Wealth) portfolio is 6-0 and could have up to three more winners by this Friday’s close.

We could have New Alerts this week so stay locked-and-loaded. Don’t forget to signup for Text Alerts if you haven’t done so already.